(Photo credit: TVO)

Canada’s largest public education system is a network of 589 schools and around 250,000 students. Several schools are facing the threat of closure because of dwindling enrolment while others are saddled with too many students to teach.

The Toronto District School Board has released enrolment projections up to 2034 when at least 150 of their schools are expected to be overcapacity. Topping the list is Avondale Public School, which according to projections will be 270 per cent over the 100 per cent enrolment threshold.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Eastern Commerce Collegiate Institute is expected to be at thre per cent capacity in 2034. Currently the school is only seven per cent full with around 62 students according to TDSB data.

Currently, Avondale has an enrolment rate of 257 per cent, a 191 per cent increase from a decade ago. Fisherville Senior Public School has seen their enrolment slide by 96 per cent since 2004, but the biggest drop has been at Subway Academy I where enrolment has tumble by 243 per cent over ten years.

But enrolment rates are a reflection of current capacity relative to availability. The figure doesn’t correspond to total size (aggregate number of students). The bubble plot above more accurately reflects that measure.

The schools with the largest student body are Earl Haig Secondary, Northern Secondary, and Marc Garneau Collegiate Institute, with 2095, 1846, and 1727 students respectively. Compare this with Etobicoke Year Round Alternative Centre which had only 48 students in 2014.